safety in Israel
The following article from the Jerusalem Post
provides an intriguing perspective on safety in Israel.
Competing risks and realities
 
American leaders have stressed the importance of leading normal lives in the
wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Travel, shop, eat out, and take
in that movie.
But what if your normal life includes regular trips to Israel? The US State
Department has issued a warning urging Americans, for their own safety, not
to go there.
One cannot deny that, with help from the media, Israel is perceived as a
dangerous place due to the threat of terrorism. Indeed, while recently in
Israel giving talks and attending a conference, I received numerous e-mails
from colleagues and friends worrying for my safety, admonishing me to avoid
public places, or otherwise urging me to watch out. I truly appreciate such
genuine expressions of concern, but they stem from the aforementioned
perception that Israel is much more dangerous than America. A simple review
of available data, however, suggests the opposite.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, during the 442 days from the
beginning of the current Palestinian intifada until the end of December,
2001, 120 Israelis were killed by terrorist suicide bombings, shootings,
hit-and-runs, stabbings, or other means within "Israel proper," that is, not
including terror victims in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
All of these murders are tragic, and I do not intend in any way to make
light of them here. However, given that 6.3 million people reside within
Israel proper, these deaths work out to an annual personal risk of death
from terrorism of 16 in one million, within the boundaries of Israel proper,
which would be the destination of most visitors.
Is this a big risk or a little risk? Let's compare first with the risk of
death from motor vehicle accidents in Israel, since one thing tourists do is
travel around. Again, excluding the West Bank and Gaza, Israel's Central
Bureau of Statistics reports 461 traffic fatalities during the 2000 calendar
year. This adds up to an annual personal risk of 73 per one million, which
is nearly four times higher than the risk of death from terrorism.
So what, you say - this makes Israel look worse! Look again. The 2000
Statistical Abstract of the United States reports that about 41,500 traffic
fatalities have occurred in each of the past several years in the US. With a
population of 286 million people, the annual personal risk of death from a
motor vehicle accident in the United States is 145 per one million.
That's right - the personal risk of road death is nearly twice as high in
the United States as in Israel. And the risk of road death in the United
States is nearly eight times higher than the risk of death from terrorism in
Israel! Since we Americans readily accept the 145 per million risk of road
death without worry, why has the US State Department warned us not to travel
to Israel?
Let's put this into an even more direct perspective. My recent visit to
Israel was one week in duration. Since I did not enter the West Bank or
Gaza, my combined probability of dying from either terrorism or a car crash
on this visit equaled 1.7 in one million.
Had I followed the State Department's guidance and canceled my visit to
Israel, I would have instead enjoyed a 2.8 in one million chance of being
killed in a motor vehicle accident at home. In other words, for those
keeping score, my death risk would have been 65 percent higher in the US
than in Israel.
And I have neglected to note my 23 combined hours flying El Al, one of the
safest activities available within the limits of Earth's atmosphere. It
seems that the most dangerous thing I did on this trip was drive from New
Haven to JFK Airport!
Perceived risks govern human behavior more than actual risks, and the
elevated perceived risk of terror in Israel relative to the actual danger is
no exception. I know of at least two canceled academic meetings and a third
that is in jeopardy due to the perceived danger of holding such events in
Israel. To the extent that terrorism relies on this psychology of fear, such
cancellations are victories for the terrorists. And, while the fate of
academic events is important to me, this is nothing compared to the economic
losses Israel faces from the drop in tourism and other business revenues.
When the US State Department issues travel warnings, many people listen. If
citizen safety is the goal, perhaps the State Department should urge all of
us Americans to stop driving. But then, wouldn't that conflict with the goal
of leading a normal life?
The Jerusalem Post - January 8, 2002
Edward H. Kaplan
(The writer is the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management
Sciences, Yale University.)
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